'Sonoma County home sales surge in March' reads the headline in the Press Democrat.
The question not asked: compared to what?
Yes, according to DataQuick, sales in March were up 42%... from 327 in March 2008 to 463 March 2009.
But if you look at the graph above you'll see that does not tell the whole story. Sales are DOWN 42% from March 2005 when sales were 792.
Check out the numbers here and here.
The bigger question is will 463 sales be enough to counter the wave of foreclosures that are about to hit the state and presumably the county? My guess is no.
Love that chart.
ReplyDeleteLies, damn lies and statistics.....
ReplyDeleteThe Press Democrat exists to sell advertising and generate revenue.heir Real Estate coverage over the last few years reflects this clearly.
ReplyDeleteThey call this a "dead cat bounce".
ReplyDeleteIt seems very misleading that you would compare 2005, a year in which anyone with a pulse could get a loan, and thus sales were artifically high, to a year (2009) in which credit and loan requirements are arguably more stringent.
ReplyDeleteRegarding the Press Democrat, they do some good reporting. Mike Coit in particular. He's been covering the decline and I remember some great pieces in 2004 as prices were skyrocketing subtly pointing out the insanity of the situation (i.e. profiling people taking out seconds on their homes to buy second homes to rent at a loss).
ReplyDeleteThat said, given the severity of the decline still yet to come I'd like to see more out of the paper.
I'd love to open up the paper see an article calling RE agents on their "rates are low, you have to buy now" spin... but I'm not holding my breath.
It seems very misleading that you would compare 2005, a year in which anyone with a pulse could get a loan, to a year (2009) in which credit and loan requirements are arguably more stringent.I agree. But that's as far back as I could get data. Obviously data going back 10 or 20 years would give you a better picture.
ReplyDeleteBut... A) data for five years is better than data for one and B) the irony that since 2005 we've had a 42% decline vs a 42% gain last year made it too good to pass up given the are mirror image gain/decline.
Who the f*ck cares about buying property in a War Criminal nation anyway?
ReplyDeleteI think I'll use my saved-up downpayment money to EMIGRATE instead. Perhaps to a country WITH A MORE STABLE ECONOMY ...like Zimbabwe for example.
As anyone who has followed Ben Jones' The Housing Bubble blog or patrick.net the last 4 years knows: 2.5 times the average income of any area should represent the average price home in that area. RE 101. You can argue that 'this is different' just after you debate the law of gravity. After you float off into space, MAYBE, just MAYBE...I'll consider believing you.
ReplyDeleteMy opinion of Michael Coit is quite different.I had several conversations with him in early 2006 and have no respect for him,he is a shill.Your comment regarding his "subtlety" is revealing,his paycheck depended on promoting the business of those who bought advertising in the PD.If he had tried to report honestly he would have lost his job and THAT is my point.He is SUPPOSED to be a reporter just as the PD is SUPPOSED to be a newspaper.
ReplyDeleteNice post Tom. I need to go back review some of his pieces. I've only been following his stuff closely since I started this website.
ReplyDeleteI think I'll write something on the PD's real estate coverage. If you have any egregious example of the PD's cheerleading it would be great if you could email them to healdsburgbubble@gmail.com
I related at least one of my conversations on "Sonoma Housing Bubble" when it took place in 2006.Mr Coit obtained his information from the NAR,the CAR and Coldwell Banker at the tim at was not happy to have someone call their competence,objectivity or veracity into question.It was about the same time that the PD started to disclose that the author of their Real Estate Report was Rick Laws "Of Coldwell Banker"
ReplyDeleteThanks Tom. I just looked up some of those posts. You, Athena, & co. really were ahead of the game.
ReplyDeleteAt some point I'll repost some of that history with quotes from Realtors saying "nobody could have seen this crash coming".