California Foreclosures about to Soar

Mark Hanson at his new blog at Field Check Group recently published a MUST READ REPORT for those interested in the California real estate market. As he explains, foreclosures are about to hit the state in force:

Foreclosures About to Soar Neat-Term — Easily Back to All-Time Highs

Are you ready to see the future? Ten’s of thousands of foreclosures are only 1-5 months away from hitting that will take total foreclosure counts back to all-time highs. This will flood an already beaten-bloody real estate market with even more supply just in time for the Spring/Summer home selling season - great timing!

For months prior to March, banks/servicers were on and off of foreclosure moratoria with many on a complete hold awaiting Pres. Obama’s plan to save the housing market and homeowners. We track each foreclosure start through the entire foreclosure process individually and in aggregate — also by originator and servicer — and as soon as the Obama plan was made known, banks/servicer shifted their Notice-of-Default and Notice-of-Trustee Sale machines into overdrive.

Foreclosure start (NOD) and Trustee Sale (NTS) notices are going out at levels not seen since mid 2008. Once an NTS goes out, the property is taken to the courthouse and auctioned within 21-45 days.

Head over and give the whole thing a read. It includes some excellent charts.

One chart that really caught my eye was the Notice of Defaults on California homes worth over $750,000:


Not only are we hitting new highs by the month but as Mark points out the supply of $750k homes from foreclosure alone is greater than current demand.

This should worry many in Sonoma County looking to sell in the next few months.

Update: Mark actually has a previous post that goes into more details called "2009 Upper-End Housing Market Outlook"