This morning S&P released the December 2008 Case-Shiller data. I've updated the graph of a hypothetical Bay Area home valued at $600,000 at the peak of the bubble.
This home has now fallen $242,478 from its peak.
Updating the graph with futures data from the Chicago Mercantile Exchange, we see that the markets expect the home to fall to $326,418 by March, $318,725 by June, and $303,888 by September. Yes, the trading is thin on these contracts but they've done a decent job so far.
If true, we're getting very close to a 50% drop from the peak of the bubble.
Until homes are priced at traditional ratios of income or rent I will wait,and advise others to do so as well.
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