Prices for the most expensive U.S. homes may not reach bottom for another few years, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. analysts...
“Currently, we have national home prices bottoming in 2011,” [JPMorgan Chase & Co.] said. “However, prices for more expensive homes may not bottom out until 2012, and ultimately result in peak-to- trough declines in excess of 60 percent (compared to 40 percent nationally).”
“California is probably worse than other states, but higher-priced homes in general are going to be a problem,”
Sonoma County take note.
"High end" in this context means price at the peak,I assume.If I go to "Craigslist" Northbay and look at properties priced at $1.5MM and up I see a huge disparity in quality and price.A 50% drop in the best of these properties seems optimistic,many will drop further because of several factors,the most important being that there are few qualified buyers in this price range.Location and the quality of construction/utility are also very important...but no one ever has to buy while someone always has to sell.where are the buyers at these prices?
ReplyDeleteWe have been looking at Healdsburg Commons. As you have previously noted, the prices have come down significantly from 7/08. As of 6/16, we have been told by Sotherby's that only the 2 large units on Central remain at $679,000. Four units have sold in the last 2 - 3 weeks. Is there any way to find out what these recent sales went for? It will help us make an offer if we know the price/square foot. Thanks
ReplyDeleteAnon,good luck catching that knife by the hilt.If this is THE place you MUST live,no matter the price,why care about the price? If you do care about price WTF are you doing buying now?
ReplyDeleteIt looks like 604 Healdsburg Ave sold for $429,000 on May 15th according to Redfin:
ReplyDeletehttp://www.redfin.com/CA/Healdsburg/604-Healdsburg-Ave-95448/home/17309904
I don't see any other updates from the last time we reported on this (last list price on the property above was $479,000 according to Redfin):
http://healdsburgbubble.blogspot.com/2009/05/surge-of-activity-at-healdsburg-commons.html
Here is a question for you... why don't the agents you're dealing with let you know what the properties are going for? Surely they have more information than what I can pull off Redfin.
HHB,that is an ugly question to ask,but an important one.Due to the structure of our real estate market most buyer's agents are legally sub-agents of the listing broker and since they are paid on commission they have no financial interest in bringing down the price.The confused Agency relationship is a fundamental problem in Real Estate which causes an inherent conflict.The fiduciary duty to put the client's interest before your own is not something most agents have though about since they took their licensing test.Just imagine the salesperson who brags to their broker "my client was willing to pay $100k more,but I got the price down!" is the response likely to be "Great Job" or "you just cost me $1,500,clean out your desk"?
ReplyDeleteDo you work for "Redfin"?
ReplyDeleteI do not,I can't speak for HHB.
ReplyDeleteNo, I don't either. But I will say I was impressed when Redfin put up a permanent link to this site on their Bay Area blog.
ReplyDelete